Below-Average Temps Ahead

(October 12- October 18)
Valid for Union, NJ

Colder air from Canada, will be coming to our region this week, so you may want to bring a jacket with you if you can. For Monday (Columbus Day), we can expect partly sunny skies and a high in the mid 50s. Winds will be from the north at 5 to 8 mph, and then will shift to the south as a low pressure system from our south. For the evening we can expect a low around 48 and a slight chance of showers after 1 am. Don't forget your umbrellas Tuesday because there is a slight chance of showers before 3 pm. Expect a high of 62 and slightly breezy conditions from the northwest at 8 to 11 mph, with winds increasing to 17 to 20 mph after 3 pm. A cold front will pass through the region Tuesday night, as it will be chilly with a low around 40. A high pressure system will move into the region Wednesday, as we can expect mostly sunny skies and a high near 55. For Thursday we can expect a chance for showers and a high near 50 and for Thursday night we can expect showers and a low near 42 as a low pressure system moves in from the South. For Friday expect a chance for rain and a high near 54. The weekend looks to be pleasant, due to a high pressure system from the northwest, with a high in the mid 50s for Saturday and for Sunday we'll be seeing a slight warm-up with mostly sunny skies and a high near 58.

Be safe and have an enjoyable holiday!

Feeling Extra-Topical?

Hurricane forecast for England, in October? That's right! Tropical Storm Grace just blow right by the United States and ended up near the United Kingdom a few days ago. Unusual, I'd say so! The storm developed off the coast of Azores, in late September as an extra-tropical area of low pressure. By October 4, the storm had formed and at 11:00 AST that day it was named Grace, by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) due to it's relatively deep convection and eye-like feature. Convection continued to persist due to low wind shear, even though the storm was already in waters not normally warm enough for a tropical storm to develop. Due to the intense jet stream, the tropical storm blew on a northeastern track over the Atlantic, rather than the more common southly track over the northwestern Atlantic. The storm intensified slightly as it moved over the waters and then began to decrease as it moved closer to the land surface, the next day. It's max winds where reported to peak at about 70 mph, for about one-minute. On October 6, Tropical Storm Grace dissipated over England, after bringing minor rainfall and high winds to Wales, Ireland and Capel Curig, United Kingdom.

According to the Hurricane Specialist's Unit (2009), "Operationally, Grace was not classified a tropical storm until it reached latitude 41.2°N; this marked the second northernmost formation of a tropical storm in the Atlantic on record, only Tropical Storm Alberto of 1988 had formed farther north." It also "...marked the farthest northeast a tropical cyclone formed in the Atlantic basin, surpassing that of Hurricane Vince in 2005."

Unfortunately these reports were proven to be incorrect after a post-storm analysis by the NHC, finding that "Grace had become a tropical storm 12 hours earlier than initially stated, becoming tropical at latitude 38.3°N." - source here.

Regardless if Tropical Storm Grace, was extra-tropical or just tropical, I'm sure it surprised a lot of weather forecasters!

Track of Hurricane Grace (courtesy of weather underground)

Definition of Extratropical- "

-->Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are a group of cyclones defined as synoptic scale low pressure weather systems that occur in the middle latitudes of the Earth (outside the tropics) having neither tropical nor polar characteristics, and are connected with fronts and horizontal gradients in temperature and dew point otherwise known as "baroclinic zones." source